CQ TODAY MIDDAY UPDATE
July 28, 2008 – 1:49 p.m.
Deficit Estimate Soars as Slump Takes Its Toll

The Bush administration Monday projected a budget deficit of $482 billion in fiscal 2009 — a record high in dollar terms.

The previous record was $412.7 billion in fiscal 2004.

The better way to gauge the size of the deficit, according to economists, is as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP. Deficits in the mid-1980s were in the 5 percent range. In that light, the fiscal 2004 figure, 3.6 percent of GDP, was not particularly high by historical standards. The projected 2009 deficit would be 3.3 percent of GDP.

The new fiscal 2009 deficit number is higher than the $407 billion the administration projected early this year as part of President Bush’s budget proposal.

The deficit for the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, is now projected to be $389 billion, or 2.7 percent of GDP. That is down from the $410 billion projected initially, but still higher than the final fiscal 2007 deficit of $162.8 billion.

Administration officials also attributed the higher fiscal 2009 projection to the slowing economy, which is depressing tax receipts, and to the economic stimulus package enacted earlier this year, which the Congressional Budget Office projected would cost $133.9 billion over five years with most of that cost occurring in fiscal 2008 and fiscal 2009.

But fiscal 2009 does not even begin until Oct. 1, and the economy could recover in time to drain some of the red ink now projected, officials said. They also said the number could come in lower if the Democratic-controlled Congress keeps spending in check.

The release of the deficit number always provides an opportunity for both parties to spar over fiscal policy.

“If these reports prove accurate, they confirm the dismal legacy of the Bush administration: Under its policies, the largest surpluses in history have been converted into the largest deficits in history,” said House Budget Chairman John M. Spratt Jr., D-S.C.

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Source: CQ Today Midday Update
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