CQ TODAY
Feb. 23, 2007 – 5:38 p.m.
Senate Republicans at Crossroads in Minority

Almost two months into their new minority status, Senate Republicans are crowing about the number of Democratic priorities enacted so far.

“Zero. That’s how many parts of the Democratic agenda, the Six for ’06, have become law,” said Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott, R-Miss. “Sure, some bills passed the House. But nothing was enacted. It’s been a lot of show and tell.”

But now Lott and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., must strike a difficult balance between stopping Democratic initiatives and crafting compromises that can serve their interests. The first test is likely to be negotiations over the vehicle (HR 976) for combining a minimum wage increase with small-business tax breaks.

Leaders in both parties want such a deal, but disputes among business interests often aligned with the GOP will make that process more difficult. How those negotiations unfold could provide a template for moving other domestic priorities.

GOP leaders could cut deals that appeal to swing voters — or take uncompromising stands that appeal to conservatives. Doing the latter would risk being tagged “obstructionist” — the charge that helped oust Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D. (1987-2005), in the 2004 elections.

“The shoe is on the other foot now,” Daschle said. “They used to criticize me as being too obstructionist, not allowing the process to move forward. Now, they are boasting about it. The trick is finding the right balance.”

Republicans face concerted pressure from lobbyists on K Street to use every tool available to knock off House-passed proposals to roll back tax breaks for oil companies (HR 6) or allow the government to negotiate lower prices for drugs bought for Medicare recipients (HR 4).

On other issues, they face splits in their ranks and among their constituents. For instance, should they hang tough on the $8.3 billion package of small-business tax breaks that was attached to a Senate-passed proposal (HR 2) to raise the minimum wage, despite opposition from some business groups over the revenue-raising provisions that pay for it?

Conservatives such as Jon Kyl of Arizona, chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, argue for more tax cuts. But some anti-tax advocates have joined the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in pushing for a much smaller bill, similar to the House-passed $1.3 billion package of tax breaks (HR 976).

“We want an agreement that is closer to the House bill,” said R. Bruce Josten, an executive vice president for the Chamber. His group has lobbied against offsets in the Senate bill, such as a proposal to cap deductions for deferred compensation.

But advocates for small businesses and restaurants are fighting for as large a package of tax breaks as possible to help them offset the costs of a minimum wage that would rise to $7.25 over two years.

The need to resolve those disputes could undermine the unity on broad themes that has enabled the GOP to eke out victories on the Senate floor.

“Republicans have had more success than Democrats. They have stifled everything that has come out of the House. And they have gotten members to vote with their party, ” said Julian Zelizer, a congressional historian at Boston University. “But it’s not enough to just block things. They have to show some balance.”

‘The Power of 41’

Daschle, now a special adviser at the lobbying firm Alston & Bird, said he believes Republicans will look for deals on a few major issues, such as energy and immigration.

The Senate GOP seems energized despite the setback it was handed in November. “Republicans were in disarray, back on their heels having lost their majority. What they have done is build on the power of 41,” said David Hoppe, a lobbyist for health care interests and a former Lott aide. He was referring to the number of votes needed to sustain a filibuster.

The Democrats’ narrow margin in the Senate has helped the GOP. Democrats hold a 51-49 edge, including the two independents who caucus with Democrats, Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont.

GOP aides note that Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., now must persuade at least nine Republicans to join him to reach the filibuster-proof threshold of 60 votes. That’s well more than the five Democratic votes that his predecessor, former Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. (1995-2007), needed to go along with a 55-seat GOP majority.

Making matters more difficult for Reid, Tim Johnson, D-S.D., is still recuperating from a brain hemorrhage.

The new Senate minority has shown near unity in the 10 cloture votes so far this year — voting against Democrats and blocking cloture, except on four occasions where GOP leaders voted with their Democratic counterparts.

As a result, Democrats have had few clear-cut wins in the Senate. They were able to get Republicans to line up behind a continuing resolution (PL 110-5) to fund much of the government through fiscal 2007. And they won two cloture votes to clear the way for the bipartisan minimum wage bill, but only after Republicans stopped a stand-alone wage measure.

On other showdowns, Republicans prevented Democrats from getting a filibuster-proof 60 votes to end debate on the Democratic-backed ethics bill (S 1) and on a non-binding proposal (S 574) to oppose increased troop deployments for the Iraq War.

Hoppe said Senate Republicans likely will cut deals on the minimum wage, the ethics bill and a proposal (S 4) to enact many of the recommendations of the Sept. 11 commission.

Both parties, Hoppe and Zelizer said, will be under pressure to produce bipartisan trophies for the 2008 elections.

Source: CQ Today
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