Before deciding to blink in the long standoff over war spending and troop withdrawal, House Democrats convinced themselves President Bush is scoring only a short-term victory.

The House is expected to send to the Senate late Thursday a war spending bill Bush is apparently willing to sign — now that Democrats have removed any mention of withdrawal schedules or goals.

Republican supporters of the administration’s Iraq policy declared victory, but a Democratic appropriator said Democrats intend to turn the GOP success into a Pyrrhic victory this fall.

A much-anticipated report on the Iraq military campaign is due in September, and House Republicans have said their continued support of White House policy depends on signs of progress. Another supplemental spending request for the new fiscal year will be on the table, and Democrats again will press for troop withdrawals.

The fall will be “really the moment of truth for this war,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

“Democrats lucked into September,” conceded Rep. Patrick T. McHenry, R-N.C. “Does it put pressure on us? Absolutely.”

Democrats said this week they would have jeopardized their fall bargaining position if they had insisted on keeping withdrawal timelines in the current supplemental spending bill (HR 2206). Persisting now would likely have resulted in another veto and would have handed Republicans talking points for the Memorial Day recess about which party supports the troops in the field.

Democrats were particularly worried about the prospect of Bush declaring at wreath-laying ceremonies that “Democrats have stopped resources for the troops,” said Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala.

“The problem is that we have to provide money for the troops, and if we don’t, the Democrats will be blamed,” added Rep. James P. Moran, D-Va., a war opponent. “Bush has the bully pulpit, so he will define who is responsible.”

“Obviously it’s a good move,” said Democratic pollster Fred Yang. “It gives President Bush and Republicans one less thing to shoot at” during the upcoming recess week.

Democrats are positioning themselves for the next showdown, one they have a chance of winning. “It’s more to our advantage to show that it is a bipartisan view that we need to redeploy the troops,” said Rep. Chaka Fattah, D-Pa.

“Their very serious game is designed to facilitate a collapse of Republican support for the president on Iraq in early fall,” said Thomas Mann, a political science scholar at the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank. “They remain very much on track to accomplish that objective.”

Democratic confidence was bolstered after 11 moderate Republicans visited the White House on May 8 and reportedly told Bush they may not support the war beyond September if progress is not demonstrated. Republican lawmakers caution that the upcoming report may provide such a complicated analysis of the situation in Iraq that it will not be easy to declare improvement.

Republicans are nevertheless celebrating a concession by Democrats. House Republican Conference Chairman Adam H. Putnam of Florida said the outcome shows that Democrats “are in a free fall.”

He and other Republicans challenged the Democrats’ presumption that the GOP will see a significant number of war policy defections by summer’s end.

“We’ll definitely have a harder time keeping our rank and file together,” a Republican aide said, but the likely scenario would be the GOP losing “in the vicinity of 17-20 members, not a majority.”

“The problem is, once you get to 20 members, can you stop more from following?” the aide said.

Democratic leaders will gladly let Republicans provide most of the votes for Thursday’s amendment providing war funds without withdrawal language. Many Democrats, including Pelosi, are ready to vote against an amendment carrying the war funding without withdrawal provisions.

For the first time this year, majority Democrats will be relying on Republicans to win a vote.