The Islamic world of the not-too-distant future is a place where the greatest threat of Muslim extremism comes not from Arab and Muslim-born jihadists but from Iraqi youths themselves. Where desperately poor Muslim teenagers in Europe dream of waging war against the United States in Iraq. Where once-fringe Islamist groups such as al Qaeda mine the rich recruitment grounds of Western cities.

And it is a place that will be discussed in detail during the Middle East Institute’s 61st annual conference, “the Middle East in 2010,” which will be held Tuesday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. at the National Press Club.

The forward-looking panels will discuss such subjects as “Radicalization and Survival for Palestinian Refugees,” and “America in the Middle East: What Comes Next?”

A third panel is scheduled to discuss “Post-Iraq War Jihadists: Where Next?,” and will highlight the shifting nature of the jihadist universe both inside and outside Iraq. Fawaz Gerges, who holds the Christian A. Johnson Chair in International Affairs and Arab and Muslim Politics at Sarah Lawrence College, will join in the discussion with CNN Baghdad Correspondent Michael Ware, former Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence chief Gen.Ehsanul Haq. and Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program head Paul Pillar.

Gerges, author of “Journey of the Jihadist: Inside Muslim Militancy” and “The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global,” said he interviewed hundreds of teenagers in Iraq and Europe for a new book that attempts to arrive at some answers to the above question. His conclusions are less than comforting.

“One of my major findings,” Gerges said, “is that if it were not for financial and logistical reasons, the flow of young Arab and Muslim teenagers into Iraq would probably exceed the flow of young men into Afghanistan in the 1980s.”

Right now, poverty among non-Iraqi Muslim youths and tightened security in states neighboring Iraq are the only things preventing many of these disaffected teens from joining the jihad against U.S. and Iraqi forces in Iraq.

In the ghettos of London, Paris, Berlin and Rome, Muslims who feel no stake in the existing order harken to the violent ideology of al Qaeda — a situation that didn’t exist to the extent it does today prior to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, according to Gerges.

“The recruitment base appears to be moving,” he said. “This is a very alarming development. It’s migrating and expanding into the urban poverty belt.”

The fact that violent extremism has begun to resonate more and more with European Muslim teens who previously had little interest in terrorism can be blamed in part on the Iraq War, said Gerges, who downplayed the threat posed by Osama bin Laden before the Sept. 11 attacks.

The invasion of Iraq is seen by a majority of the Arab and Muslim world as having nothing to do with the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and has served as a powerful propaganda tool for al Qaeda and other extremists. Before the war, Gerges said, al Qaeda had lost the support of the wider Muslim community and even fellow Islamists.

Perhaps more important for the future of Islamic jihad is the growing prevalence of Iraqi insurgents who are motivated by nationalism or sectarian hatreds. While it would be foolish to underestimate al Qaeda’s ability to resurrect itself, jihadists in general represent only about 2 percent to 5 percent of the insurgency in Iraq. The rest are Iraqis, Gerges said.

As a consequence, said panelist Paul Pillar, the head of Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program, the future of Iraq has been set on a violent course.

“Whatever happens with the jihadists or other extremists in Iraq, much of it is going to happen whether the United States withdraws tomorrow or they withdraw three years from now or five years from now.”

And just as the U.S.-trained mujahedeen, who defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the late-1980s, gave rise to today’s brand of terrorist, today’s jihadists in Iraq may give rise to future permutations, Pillar said.

Matthew Korade can be reached at mkorade@cq.com.