CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 10, 2011 – 11:12 p.m.

Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell

Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell

Alternatively, if Boehner were to cut a deal with Obama, he would face party unity challenges and more.

A package with any provisions that could be construed as tax increases could sow divisions among Boehner and his lieutenants, including Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., who was the most skeptical congressional leader that the two sides could agree to a $4 trillion package without tax hikes.

Refusing to publicly entertain the idea of a debt limit and deficit reduction agreement including revenue increases, Boehner and Cantor have repeatedly declared they could not win passage of such a package in their chamber, although it is impossible to test that claim without such an agreement in hand.

The only other major legislation the Speaker negotiated with the president — the fiscal 2011 spending package (PL 112-10) cleared in April — was passed only with the help of 81 Democrats after 59 Republicans defected. Conservatives were left with a bad taste from that experience, particularly after learning that the package’s spending cuts were not as substantial as they had first appeared.

And even if the package relies solely on spending cuts, House GOP leaders are almost certain to lose the votes of some in their conference who simply would not trust any agreement negotiated with the White House.

Boehner would have to get at least some votes from Democrats. That could be especially true if leaders are forced to pass a short-term debt ceiling hike that would force members to vote a second time to raise the limit later this year.

Thirty-four rank-and-file House Republicans have signed what they call the “cut, cap and balance” pledge, vowing to oppose any debt limit increase unless Congress sends to the states for ratification a proposed constitutional amendment that would cap federal spending at 18 percent of the gross domestic product and require a two-thirds majority in each chamber to increase taxes. The measure (H J Res 1) has 133 cosponsors, but it would need two-thirds majorities in both chambers.

Republican leaders have not signed the pledge. Cantor said, “I don’t want to sign a pledge that conditions my vote on what the Democrats may or may not do.”

Nevertheless, subtracting the 34 pledge signers leaves Boehner with 209 GOP votes — at most — for any debt limit increase. The support of at least eight Democrats would be needed to muster the 217 votes that would guarantee passage. Three House seats are currently vacant.

Pelosi’s Challenge

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has been the voice of liberal Democrats in vigorously opposing any cuts in the benefits received by Medicare or Social Security recipients. Obama has met with her privately, but only recently has she had a seat at the negotiating table.

Eventually, Pelosi, D-Calif., will have to decide whether to continue to play the role of the leader of the opposition or to lead House Democrats to back any deal the president reaches with Republicans.

Many liberal Democrats are likely to balk at a package that relies on deep cuts in domestic programs and entitlements — even as part of a deal blessed by Obama — if tax increases on the wealthy or on corporations are left out. Meanwhile, centrist and conservative Democrats may want to back spending cuts and oppose tax hikes.

Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell

GOP leaders have already begun trying to identify Democrats who might help the majority pass a package, even one opposed by House Democratic leaders. Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said he has targeted moderate Democrats, including the 25-member Blue Dog Coalition, on the debt limit.

But Mike Ross of Arkansas, a Blue Dog leader, said the faction is wary of the GOP charm offensive. “We’ve got to see substantial and meaningful spending cuts,” Ross said. “It would not be helpful to do as some Republicans have done, which is lay down a marker that is unachievable.”

Given Pelosi’s possible opposition, Minority Whip Steny H. Hoyer, D-Md., said he has discussed with GOP leaders his willingness to help line up moderate Democratic support for a debt limit and deficit reduction compromise — but only for one that includes revenue-raising measures.

Adam Smith of Washington, a member of the centrist New Democrats, said he would be willing to support a negotiated package or a Republican plan as long as its spending cuts were accompanied by some revenue increases.

Passing a debt limit and deficit package will probably not be possible without bipartisan support, said Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. But Van Hollen said even a set of $1 trillion in spending cuts identified by the bipartisan talks led by Biden in May and June would not gain Democratic support without ending some tax breaks for businesses and the wealthy.

“Even that trillion was contingent on an overall agreement, which meant the Republicans had to agree to some revenue component,” Van Hollen said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Reid’s Double Trouble

The sales job facing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and Whip Richard J. Durbin, D-Ill., will be to appeal to both the moderates and liberals.

Bernard Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats, strongly opposes cuts in social safety-net programs and has warned that “the White House might be in for a big surprise if they think everyone in the Democratic Caucus is going to willy-nilly follow the president.”

While Reid has previously suggested that he could use the process known as budget reconciliation to make a debt deal filibuster-proof, budget experts say there is not enough time before the Aug. 2 deadline to take that procedural route. “The bottom line is probably that this whole thing doesn’t work unless you’ve got 60 votes,” said Jim Horney, director of federal fiscal policy at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Reid could not count on all 52 other members of the Democratic caucus to vote with him, especially if the final deal includes changes to Social Security or Medicare that are opposed by liberals, or if it omits Democratic proposals to collect additional revenues from upper-bracket taxpayers and eliminate some business tax breaks.

“If the ultimate deal is one that is wrong for the country, I think there are a considerable number of senators who would want to be heard on that and want to make sure their votes reflected their views,” Rhode Island Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse said.

While a large deficit reduction package filled with domestic program cuts could cost Reid the support of many liberals, a modest package with fewer cuts could cost him moderate votes.

Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell

Budget Chairman Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat, has said anything less than $4 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade is inadequate. Moderates in both parties could withhold their support from a smaller deal and press for the so-called Gang of Six bipartisan group, which has not yet publicly offered its suggestions, to resurrect a broader deal — or at least the promise of a broader deal — later in this Congress. Conrad has said any short-term debt ceiling hike would have to include such a promise to garner his vote.

Even if Reid’s caucus were united in support of a deal, he would still need at least seven Republicans in order to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to get it through the Senate.

McConnell’s Support a Key

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has largely backed Boehner, and on Sunday echoed the Speaker’s expectation for a deal with far less for than $4 trillion in budget savings. He also said later this week he may unveil a contingency plan, which he declined to describe, to ensure that the government’s $14.29 trillion borrowing authority is raised.

But any proposal will be met with skepticism by Senate Republicans, who have been critical of the closed-door negotiations.

“We’re not just going to ratify some secret deal even if our good leaders plop it down on the floor of the Senate,” Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Sessions, who is ranking member on the Budget Committee said rank-and-file lawmakers will need at least a week to review any agreement reached by the leaders.

As is the case in the House, some Senate Republicans are likely to oppose any debt ceiling hike. Twelve of the 47 Senate Republicans, the most conservative members of the GOP conference, have signed the “cut, cap, and balance” pledge just as some of their House counterparts.

Given stout opposition to a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution by most Senate Democrats, that means those 12 Republicans are effectively in the no category for now. But even if a dozen conservative Republicans and a dozen liberal Democrats vote against their leaders, Reid and McConnell should still have more than 70 votes.

A big problem for all the leaders is the calendar. G. William Hoagland, a former top budget aide to Senate Republicans who is now vice president for public policy at Cigna Corp., said leaders may have to write a vague measure that sets budgetary targets for savings, which would then be turned into more-detailed legislation this fall.

But senators may be loathe to vote for a package lacking details. “It’s not a question of whether it’s a big deal or a small deal,” Sanders said. “The question is, what is in the deal?”