CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 10, 2011 – 11:12 p.m.
Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell
By Brian Friel and Alan K. Ota, CQ Staff
Narrow, broad or even temporary, any debt reduction deal between President Obama and congressional leaders would be a tough sell to the rank and file.
Neither majority party — House Republicans nor Senate Democrats — has sufficient support to pass a debt limit package on its own, meaning the challenge for the leaders and Obama will be to find an agreement that can draw votes from the center of both.
Doing so, however, may require them to marginalize the most vocal opponents in their caucuses.
The challenge was underscored over the weekend when House Speaker
The Speaker announced late July 9 that the White House’s demand for tax increases sank the larger deal, and that he would aim instead for a smaller package that looks more like the $2 trillion-plus spending cuts and revenue increase Vice President
Such an approach, however, would be no easier to sell. Conservatives can be expected to judge the package as too small to shrink the size of government, and liberals are likely to balk at a package tilted toward spending cuts and lacking tax increases.
Rank-and-file Republicans have been adamant in their opposition to higher taxes, and Democrats countered Boehner on Sunday by saying that even a smaller package would need to include new revenue.
Both parties have set this week’s end as the deadline for leaders and the Obama administration to reach a basic agreement given the Aug. 2 deadline set by the Treasury Department for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, and the fact that the leaders will need at least two weeks to write legislation, find the votes and move it through both chambers.
The Speaker’s Burden
Of the four top House and Senate leaders, Boehner probably faces the biggest challenge. In his first term with the gavel, the Ohio Republican will either be the leader of the majority that refused to increase the debt limit and avoid a government default or he will have to push through some debt limit increase and deficit reduction package over opposition from some members of his own party.
If there is no breakthrough in the current bipartisan congressional negotiations with the White House, Boehner will have to decide whether to move a Republican-written debt limit increase and deficit reduction measure. “It is an option,” Boehner said July 8.
But such a move could make many Republicans uneasy, as the spending cuts would probably be unpopular among many voters and the bill would almost certainly be a nonstarter in the Senate.
“We want to avoid anything like that until we’ve exhausted every opportunity to work for a deal,” said
Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell
Alternatively, if Boehner were to cut a deal with Obama, he would face party unity challenges and more.
A package with any provisions that could be construed as tax increases could sow divisions among Boehner and his lieutenants, including Majority Leader
Refusing to publicly entertain the idea of a debt limit and deficit reduction agreement including revenue increases, Boehner and Cantor have repeatedly declared they could not win passage of such a package in their chamber, although it is impossible to test that claim without such an agreement in hand.
The only other major legislation the Speaker negotiated with the president — the fiscal 2011 spending package (PL 112-10) cleared in April — was passed only with the help of 81 Democrats after 59 Republicans defected. Conservatives were left with a bad taste from that experience, particularly after learning that the package’s spending cuts were not as substantial as they had first appeared.
And even if the package relies solely on spending cuts, House GOP leaders are almost certain to lose the votes of some in their conference who simply would not trust any agreement negotiated with the White House.
Boehner would have to get at least some votes from Democrats. That could be especially true if leaders are forced to pass a short-term debt ceiling hike that would force members to vote a second time to raise the limit later this year.
Thirty-four rank-and-file House Republicans have signed what they call the “cut, cap and balance” pledge, vowing to oppose any debt limit increase unless Congress sends to the states for ratification a proposed constitutional amendment that would cap federal spending at 18 percent of the gross domestic product and require a two-thirds majority in each chamber to increase taxes. The measure (
Republican leaders have not signed the pledge. Cantor said, “I don’t want to sign a pledge that conditions my vote on what the Democrats may or may not do.”
Nevertheless, subtracting the 34 pledge signers leaves Boehner with 209 GOP votes — at most — for any debt limit increase. The support of at least eight Democrats would be needed to muster the 217 votes that would guarantee passage. Three House seats are currently vacant.
Pelosi’s Challenge
House Minority Leader
Eventually, Pelosi, D-Calif., will have to decide whether to continue to play the role of the leader of the opposition or to lead House Democrats to back any deal the president reaches with Republicans.
Many liberal Democrats are likely to balk at a package that relies on deep cuts in domestic programs and entitlements — even as part of a deal blessed by Obama — if tax increases on the wealthy or on corporations are left out. Meanwhile, centrist and conservative Democrats may want to back spending cuts and oppose tax hikes.
Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell
GOP leaders have already begun trying to identify Democrats who might help the majority pass a package, even one opposed by House Democratic leaders. Majority Whip
But
Given Pelosi’s possible opposition, Minority Whip
Passing a debt limit and deficit package will probably not be possible without bipartisan support, said
“Even that trillion was contingent on an overall agreement, which meant the Republicans had to agree to some revenue component,” Van Hollen said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Reid’s Double Trouble
The sales job facing Senate Majority Leader
While Reid has previously suggested that he could use the process known as budget reconciliation to make a debt deal filibuster-proof, budget experts say there is not enough time before the Aug. 2 deadline to take that procedural route. “The bottom line is probably that this whole thing doesn’t work unless you’ve got 60 votes,” said Jim Horney, director of federal fiscal policy at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Reid could not count on all 52 other members of the Democratic caucus to vote with him, especially if the final deal includes changes to Social Security or Medicare that are opposed by liberals, or if it omits Democratic proposals to collect additional revenues from upper-bracket taxpayers and eliminate some business tax breaks.
“If the ultimate deal is one that is wrong for the country, I think there are a considerable number of senators who would want to be heard on that and want to make sure their votes reflected their views,” Rhode Island Democrat
While a large deficit reduction package filled with domestic program cuts could cost Reid the support of many liberals, a modest package with fewer cuts could cost him moderate votes.
Big Deal or Small, a Tough Sell
Budget Chairman
Even if Reid’s caucus were united in support of a deal, he would still need at least seven Republicans in order to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to get it through the Senate.
McConnell’s Support a Key
Minority Leader
But any proposal will be met with skepticism by Senate Republicans, who have been critical of the closed-door negotiations.
“We’re not just going to ratify some secret deal even if our good leaders plop it down on the floor of the Senate,” Sen.
As is the case in the House, some Senate Republicans are likely to oppose any debt ceiling hike. Twelve of the 47 Senate Republicans, the most conservative members of the GOP conference, have signed the “cut, cap, and balance” pledge just as some of their House counterparts.
Given stout opposition to a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution by most Senate Democrats, that means those 12 Republicans are effectively in the no category for now. But even if a dozen conservative Republicans and a dozen liberal Democrats vote against their leaders, Reid and McConnell should still have more than 70 votes.
A big problem for all the leaders is the calendar. G. William Hoagland, a former top budget aide to Senate Republicans who is now vice president for public policy at Cigna Corp., said leaders may have to write a vague measure that sets budgetary targets for savings, which would then be turned into more-detailed legislation this fall.
But senators may be loathe to vote for a package lacking details. “It’s not a question of whether it’s a big deal or a small deal,” Sanders said. “The question is, what is in the deal?”