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July 26, 2011 – 11:16 p.m.

Boehner, Conservatives: High Stakes for Both

By Richard E. Cohen, CQ Staff

A showdown vote on John A. Boehner’s deficit reduction proposal — now scheduled for Thursday — will test both the Speaker’s leadership and the influence of his conference’s most conservative faction.

Boehner’s debt limit and deficit package was sent back to the drafting office Tuesday for a rewrite to increase its discretionary spending cuts and appease conservatives who were unhappy with the plan even before the Congressional Budget Office reported that it would save less money than advertised.

The Speaker and his leadership team know they must minimize defections from GOP ranks if they hope to pass the measure (S 627) with little help from Democrats.

Boehner moved quickly to rewrite his bill as many House and Senate conservatives — and their vocal allies outside Congress — were grouping the Speaker and other senior Republicans with President Obama as willing to settle for baby steps toward reducing the budget deficit.

The challenge from within Boehner’s party could jeopardize the duration of his Speakership and his accomplishments. But if Boehner can prevail in his bid to strike a compromise with Obama and the Democrats, the tea party’s influence over the House’s agenda and strategy could diminish.

Tuesday’s conservative barrage against the Speaker was a remarkable shift from the mood July 22, when most conservatives applauded Boehner for breaking off negotiations with Obama on a broad debt-ceiling plan.

But as Boehner and his lieutenants struggled to line up votes for the crucial House test, a succession of conservative attacks raised doubts about prospects for the proposal he released July 25.

The outlook only darkened when the unfavorable CBO scoring forced aides to revise the bill to ensure that its spending cuts exceed the amount of the increase in the debt limit.

Jim Jordan of Ohio, the head of the Republican Study Committee, a group of 178 House conservatives, crystallized the concerns early Tuesday when he said he was “confident” Boehner lacked the 218 votes — he actually needs 217 because of vacancies — for passage. Leadership aides quickly challenged the projection, saying many Republicans remain undecided.

Later Tuesday, four conservative Senate Republicans — Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Mike Lee of Utah, Rand Paul of Kentucky and David Vitter of Louisiana — raised the ante with a seven-point letter to their House counterparts urging them to oppose Boehner’s bill. “We urge you to hold the line for real reform, to vote no on the debt limit extension and to urge House leaders to stand up for taxpayers and our economic future,” they concluded.

Intensifying the conservative challenge to Boehner, the influential Club for Growth announced its strong opposition, joining the National Taxpayers Union and Heritage Action for America, the lobbying wing of the conservative Heritage Foundation. “The Boehner plan does not achieve the goals of cut, cap, and balance and doesn’t fix our fiscal mess,” said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola, a former House GOP member from Indiana. “We are urging club members to call their members of Congress and ask them to oppose it.”

But the Boehner team responded with its own tea party forces. Freshman Rep. James B. Renacci, R-Ohio, lined up with Boehner’s plan, rather than his home-state’s Jordan. “These cuts are needed to preserve our nation’s credit rating and they exceed the size of the increase in borrowing included in the bill,” said the political newcomer, before the CBO’s estimate found the opposite: The debt increase exceeded the cuts.

Earlier, freshman Allen B. West, R-Fla., threw his support behind Boehner’s approach at a GOP conference meeting. “I’d like to have more cuts. But it takes 5 miles to turn an aircraft carrier; we’ve got to at least start turning the wheel,” West said.

Boehner, Conservatives: High Stakes for Both

The Chamber of Commerce, which has offices across the nation and actively supported Republican candidates in last year’s campaign, gave Boehner what may be a significant boost. “This legislation is critical. Default on debt obligations is not an acceptable option. The time for Congress to act is now,” Chamber executive vice president R. Bruce Josten wrote to House members.

Tea Party Challenges

The battle for the heart of the Republican Party has emerged as a dramatic adjunct to the perilous campaign to avoid what Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has warned will be a default on the nation’s credit obligations if Congress does not reach agreement with Obama by Aug. 2.

Tea party conservatives, in effect, have been challenged to show whether they can contribute to the difficult task of governing, and finding a solution that can generate the requisite support from Democrats — as well as their own party leaders. Some of them have simply said they want no part of a compromise.

New Jersey Republican Scott Garrett — a Jordan ally who joined him and other conservatives at a Tuesday press conference — said he was undecided and could be swayed to back Boehner’s plan if party leaders address his objections to the measure.

Garrett said discretionary spending caps in Boehner’s bill should be tighter, and when asked whether his concerns might be resolved, he said, “I have seen amazing things happen here.”

Boehner’s measure would provide savings of roughly $1 trillion over 10 years by capping discretionary spending and promises to add more savings of almost $2 trillion if Congress enacts the recommendations of a 12-member joint committee charged with finding ways to reduce the deficit over a decade through cuts in entitlement programs, possible changes in revenues and future savings from reduced interest payments on the debt. Obama would be authorized to request an increase in the debt limit of up to $900 billion, of which $400 billion would be available immediately and the remaining $500 billion would take effect unless Congress passed a resolution of disapproval.

The CBO’s analysis finding that Boehner’s bill would narrow the deficit by $850 billion and increase the debt limit by $900 billion upended the Speaker’s promise to propose more spending cuts than any increase in the nation’s borrowing authority.

“We’re here to change Washington — no more smoke-and-mirrors, no more ‘phantom cuts.’ We promised that we will cut spending more than we increase the debt limit — with no tax hikes — and we will keep that promise,” Boehner said. “As we speak, congressional staff are looking at options to adjust the legislation to meet our pledge. This is what can happen when you have an actual plan and submit it for independent review — which the Democrats who run Washington have refused to do.”

The range of conservative complaints are as diverse as the large and often iconoclastic cast of conservatives, many of whom were swept into office with tea party support. Many contend the threat of a default has been exaggerated, and have urged the administration to take steps to prioritize spending with available resources.

Sen. Patrick J. Toomey, R-Pa., has 31 cosponsors for his proposal that would set three top priorities: payments to bond holders, Social Security recipients and active-duty military pay. Accusing the administration of “scare tactics,” Toomey said Congress should pass its own bill to set priorities.

But Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have joined Boehner in their insistence that they will meet Geithner’s Aug. 2 deadline to raise the debt ceiling.

If Boehner does not find enough votes, it will give Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., an opening — likely with McConnell — to engineer a proposal that would be able to attract Democratic votes.

Boehner, Conservatives: High Stakes for Both

House GOP leaders have warned that failure to pass Boehner’s plan would force a big change in the legislative dynamics.

“If we don’t deliver, that really could put the Senate and the president in the driver’s seat,” said Republican Conference Vice Chairwoman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers of Washington.

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