CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 27, 2011 – 11:09 p.m.
Optimism Builds for Boehner Bill
By Richard E. Cohen and Alan K. Ota, CQ Staff
The House appears ready to pass and send to the Senate a debt limit and deficit reduction package that could begin the endgame in the months-long standoff.
After seven months of highly partisan debate, the House will vote Thursday on a Republican plan including a two-step debt limit increase, $917 billion in discretionary spending cuts over 10 years and a mechanism for another $1.8 trillion in deficit reduction.
The Democratic Senate will not embrace the bill (
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Senate Democrats are preparing to place their own imprint on the plan while retaining much of Boehner’s framework. If the Senate can pass an amended version of the bill, it will have to go back to the House for a second vote that may be more difficult for the Speaker to win without counting on support from Democrats.
Opposition from conservative Republicans had left the fate of Boehner’s plan in doubt before the leadership made changes Wednesday to ensure that the package’s spending cuts outweigh its initial debt limit increase. By the end of the day, the Speaker’s allies appeared to have headed off any wholesale defection from GOP ranks and were rallying behind the proposal.
Boehner has invested much of his political capital with the majority in order to bring any type of debt limit package to a vote over opposition from the most conservative House Republicans. The process began with January briefings for rank-and-file lawmakers on the dire consequences of a default, the Speaker’s May speech in New York outlining his requirements for raising the debt limit and weeks of meetings with President Obama and Vice President
Republican optimism that the House will pass the new version of the bill and that it will quickly become a vehicle for concluding the debt limit controversy was reflected in the ground rules proposed for Thursday’s debate. The resolution provides for the House to be in session this weekend, but anticipates no more business after that until early September.
Senate Majority Leader
Boehner has since pursued a scaled-back approach that appears to have attracted the support of most House Republicans in what has become an increasingly partisan clash with Democrats — especially Obama. On Thursday’s vote, Boehner can afford to lose only 23 of his 240 Republicans if all members vote and all Democrats oppose his proposal.
Passage of his bill would be a major personal and political accomplishment for Boehner, and could mark a turning point for Congress as it seeks to tame the $14.3 trillion — and growing — debt.
RSC Incident
Boehner has struggled to win the trust and support of GOP conservatives, including tea-party-backed freshmen and some senior lawmakers. Republican Study Committee Chairman
Optimism Builds for Boehner Bill
But Jordan may have overplayed his hand, and his clout suffered an untimely blow Wednesday when it was revealed that an RSC aide was working to rally opposition to Boehner’s plan among conservative groups.
“This action was clearly inappropriate and was not authorized by the chairman, the executive director or any other members of the staff,” said RSC Communications Director Brian Straessle. “Chairman Jordan apologized to members for this breach of trust at the conference and RSC meetings earlier today.”
Other conservatives stepped forward to support the Speaker on Wednesday. Former RSC Chairman
An array of factors can influence the outcome of a tight House vote — including constituent pressure, interest group views and member-to-member persuasion, all of which have been in play.
With the spirit of a former high school football player, Boehner resorted to occasionally earthy pleas to rally his team. “This is the bill. I can’t do this job unless you’re behind me,” Boehner said during Wednesday’s closed-door conference meeting, according to a leadership aide who attended. And he demanded, “Get your ass in line.”
Following the meeting, several freshmen Republicans dropped their earlier reservations.
“I am shifting to leaning ‘yes’ ” on the bill, said
“It’s not perfect. But it’s a lot better than what we had,” said
Senate’s Turn
Even as Reid stressed early Wednesday the futility of a House vote on Boehner’s plan, it was clear he was working with Minority Leader
Reid has been revising his bill, just as Boehner did, after the Congressional Budget Office found it saved $2.2 trillion, not the $2.7 trillion that the majority leader initially claimed. He is expected to release the revised bill early Thursday.
Reid trained his opposition on the two-step debt limit increase in Boehner’s proposal, saying that would require Congress to revisit the issue early next year and create economic uncertainty. To emphasize the point, Reid fired off a letter to Boehner signed by 51 Senate Democrats and two independents who caucus with them, saying that providing only a short-term debt limit increase initially “would put America at risk, along with every family and business in it.”
Reid and McConnell engaged in intensive talks by telephone Wednesday and the night before, when the unfavorable CBO analysis forced Boehner to put off action on his bill. Reid has also been in contact with Boehner, said Majority Whip
Optimism Builds for Boehner Bill
“Communications between the majority leader and both McConnell and Boehner continue. But each of them has to go through a series of steps in the decision process before they can sit down and finally reach agreement,” Durbin said Wednesday. “I hope it is sooner, rather than later.”
Like Boehner, Reid and McConnell must deal with conservative Republicans, including
Reid must also contend with some in his own caucus who are resistant to anything that could eventually result in cuts in entitlement programs.
Senate Democrats have been waiting for the House to vote before putting in place procedural steps to advance a measure Reid wants to become the legislative vehicle for a compromise. But he may have to cede that ground to Boehner.
Several senators are considering the addition of a trigger mechanism to the Reid or Boehner plans to ensure that longer-term budget cuts are enacted — but also to ensure that a second installment of debt limit authority is approved.
The White House appeared open Wednesday to discussing a trigger mechanism, but Senate Republicans remain supportive of the Boehner plan, at least for now. They are likely to be more open to changes if it is blocked in the Senate.
Durbin said a final proposal is likely to emerge from private talks among party leaders.
“If it follows the script of almost every other crisis in Congress, a lot of it will happen in private meetings, where efforts will be made to reach an agreement and a consensus and then bring it to the floor and sell it to the members,” Durbin said. “Usually, that’s how it works. It’s rare, if ever, that there is an amendment process on the floor that leads to that kind of compromise.”
Senate Timing To Be Worked Out
“The question is whether you can come up with another enforcement mechanism that does not put the debt ceiling in question again,” Lieberman said. One mechanism under review would provide for a full $2.4 trillion debt limit increase, tied to a “claw-back” provision that would rescind, or suspend the increase, if spending cuts are not enacted.
Reid is likely to avoid an up-or-down vote on Boehner’s plan, instead offering his own proposal as an amendment. A Democratic aide said the modified Reid plan would likely call for $2.4 trillion in deficit reduction and about a similar-sized increase in the debt limit.
Senate Finance Chairman
Optimism Builds for Boehner Bill
“Reid works something out with McConnell and maybe Boehner so that we can get enough Republicans to pass modified Reid, therefore enough Republicans and Democrats to pass that over in the House,” Baucus said. The Boehner plan “is all Republican votes. What goes back has to be a combo.”
Reid is determined to keep senators in Washington until the debt limit fight is resolved, and it’s highly likely the Senate will be in session through the weekend to kill procedural time and come up a final version to send back to the House.,
Sen.
“It’s unfair, it’s bizarro,” McCain said. “The question now is whether House Republicans are going to help Mr. Boehner achieve significant progress or, in the name of the unachievable, hand Mr. Obama a victory.”
Joseph J. Schatz and Roll Call Staff Writer Steven T. Dennis contributed to this story.