CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 19, 2011 – 11:13 p.m.
House Leaders Start Planning for Deficit Bill
By Richard E. Cohen, CQ Staff
Republican leaders are laying a strategy for House passage of the joint deficit committee’s proposals, hoping to avoid the kind of revolt that complicated passage of debt limit legislation and a final fiscal 2011 spending bill.
With little more than a month remaining before the deficit panel is supposed to recommend at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction, leaders will begin efforts next week to build support among the GOP’s rank-and-file for any bipartisan package sent to the House and Senate.
“When we return from the recess, we will begin discussion in the conference,” said
Anything the bipartisan committee sends to the House and Senate presumably will have the support of the House Republicans on the panel. Boehner repeatedly has made clear he supports the panel’s efforts and that “failure is not an option.”
House leaders want to avoid repetition of the conservative uprisings that forced Boehner to revise his debt limit and deficit reduction proposal in July, and caused the initial defeat in September of a fiscal 2011 spending bill backed by the leadership.
Preparing for a vote on the joint committee’s proposals between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the leaders plan to emphasize that the consequence of rejecting the deficit panel’s recommendations would be to trigger the automatic, across-the-board spending cuts outlined in the legislation (PL 112-25) enacted in early August at the conclusion of the debt limit showdown.
If Congress and President Obama have not enacted at least $1.2 trillion in additional 10-year deficit reduction by Jan. 15, those spending cuts, called a sequester, would be triggered beginning Jan. 2, 2013.
In particular, Republican leaders are raising alarms about the potential effect of additional spending cuts on Pentagon programs. “We need to make sure that members understand how nasty the sequester would be, and that it needs to be avoided,” a House GOP leadership aide said.
And while it is difficult to estimate how much money the Pentagon would have to give up, defense officials and their congressional allies have said rejecting a joint committee proposal could devastate defense operations and usher in as much as $500 billion in cuts to all but military retirement programs.
Walden said leaders want lawmakers to understand the scope of the potential automatic spending cuts. “We also will inform members of the alternative of a budget sequester and its impact, if the joint committee plan is defeated,” he said.
Republican leaders are also taking steps to assure lawmakers that they will have plenty of time to review a plan by the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction. They expect to have the proposal reviewed by the Congressional Budget Office and fully vetted by the legislative counsel’s office. “Members want to be sure that they have time to review that,” Walden said.
Speaker Informed and Insulated
Majority Whip
House Leaders Start Planning for Deficit Bill
Boehner and other GOP leaders are seeking a balanced approach to the joint committee to avoid some of the fallout the Speaker suffered during the showdowns over raising the debt limit and fiscal 2011 spending.
Boehner’s careful calibration extends to the three lawmakers he tapped to serve on the panel. They include two influential committee heads — Ways and Means Chairman
Boehner has kept in close contact with his appointees, who are his principal means of influencing the panel. And, like other leaders, he has had closed-door briefings from the leaders of the joint committee.
“The Speaker has confidence in the members of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction. They have a big, tough job to do, and they are working hard to do it,” said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel.
Winning House approval of the final package in December will require the strong backing of GOP leaders. That increases the imperative that Boehner keep close tabs on the panel’s work. Still, the influence Boehner and other leaders have over the specifics of the joint committee’s proposal may be limited by the design and approach of the committee.
The bipartisan and bicameral panel is doing much of its work behind closed doors and has been careful to ensure leaks of internal disputes are kept to a minimum.
Members of the joint committee have been publicly silent about their work and have avoided comments that could damage potential coalition-building.
As a result, when the committee issues its recommendations — which the House and Senate will be required to accept or reject without amendment — Boehner will have some political distance from the proposal that could help him navigate it through the House. He probably will look to his appointees to the joint panel to help sell the proposal, particularly to conservatives. Hensarling, a former chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, will be well-positioned to help Boehner with that group.
“Boehner wants to avoid the dust-ups we have had” on the earlier bills, said
Instead, LaTourette said Boehner will “lay the groundwork” with Republicans for whatever emerges from the joint committee. “If the joint committee members do their work, I am optimistic that a majority in each party will support it,” LaTourette said. “The country needs it.”
Preventing Political Backlash
Boehner appears to be trying to avoid some of the problems he had during the debt ceiling negotiations as well as those leading up to a final deal on fiscal 2011 spending (PL 112-10).
He faced a backlash, particularly among conservative freshmen, after news leaked about his deficit reduction talks with Obama last summer. He also has had to deal with a lingering residue of ill will from the rebellious, tea party-backed members of his conference.
House Leaders Start Planning for Deficit Bill
Obama and administration officials have kept their distance from the joint committee’s negotiations, said an administration official who deals regularly with Congress. In public, Boehner and Obama have offered divergent suggestions of what the panel should and should not do.
Republican leaders are mindful of the potential political risks involved in their handling of the joint committee’s work, and they hope to assure that its proposal gets initial plaudits — from financial experts as well as the public. Although there is no threat of a government shutdown or credit default, the broader economic consequences may be at least as great.
“It will be important for people to see the size and content of the supercommittee’s package,” Walden said. “Congress needs to show that we are serious to the public and world markets. It would send a very positive signal to the markets if we have a product that is serious.”